The launch of chang’e-5 is imminent. It is not reliable to guess the time of China’s lunar landing before 2049

At the time when the Vikram, the lander of India’s moonship-2, had a hard landing on the moon, the topic of Chinese manned lunar landing was on the hot search again. Every similar event of manned lunar landing was always mentioned, and people like to compare India and China together. However, India has never been a rival of China, just as India will not find North Korea to benchmark its aerospace technology Like.

to talk about China’s lunar landing, as early as December 14, 2013, chang’e-3 landed in Hongwan, north of the moon’s rain sea, completing the first unmanned probe’s lunar landing trip in China’s history. Before that, there were Chang’e-1 and Chang’e-2’s general survey of the lunar terrain and resources. This work is very important. The troops have not moved, but the food and grass should go first, but the first and second are going to explore The road, such as the orbit change from the earth to the moon, the half way correction, the deceleration into the lunar orbit, and the 100 × 15 km descent orbit rehearsal, are all major events that must be experienced. Otherwise, the risks we will face will increase exponentially, because there are too many technologies that have not been verified.

it seems like a very easy process, but it is the construction of the TT & C network with the painstaking efforts of a generation of people. The launch of rockets is only the first step. The subsequent monitoring and control interruption will be caused due to the shielding of the earth’s rotation. The requirements for launching satellites into orbit may be relatively low, which can be done locally. However, in the lunar exploration project, it is necessary to ensure the monitoring and control of most of the time, and there are some blind areas that can be overcome Service. The way to solve the problem is Yuanwang series TT & C ship.

the most noteworthy one is the landing of chang’e-4 on the back of the moon. This is more difficult than the frontal landing. The relay satellite is required to maintain the communication with the lander on the back of the moon at the Lagrange point. Therefore, an extremely uncertain factor has been added in the whole project implementation. China completed this feat last year, and it is doubtless that we have thoroughly realized the measurement and control.

the chang’e-5, which will be implemented at the end of this year, is a sampling and returning plan. Different from the previous implementation, there is more than one step for the engineering complexity, because the structural complexity will be greatly increased.

compared with No.4, No.5 has more risers and re entrants because it needs to return from the moon surface and needs to re-enter the atmosphere. In this process, we have only launched from the lunar surface into the lunar orbit, which has not yet been implemented. Other technologies have been verified, such as the return of T1 spacecraft from lunar orbit on November 1, 2014 Chinese people do things step by step. They will not implement too many new technologies at one time every time they verify the technology. Otherwise, they will not be able to control the project risk. For example, the Indian unmanned probe landed on the moon, and the real reason for the disappearance of the moon ship No.1 was not found out. It is estimated that only Indians can do it. If they fail, they will become benevolent. I don’t know next time India Is it possible to send a man to the moon directly? In that case, the florist has only one sentence: “if you don’t support the wall, you’ll take the third brother”!
for example, we can’t improve the structure of the classic spaceship
before landing, but we think it’s very reasonable to upgrade the structure of 888
spaceship in the future, But it’s still on paper. But at this stage, it is still a relatively good structure.

this is an ideal way. There is no waste mass, the structure design is compact, and the cost may be reduced. But the premise is that the rocket technology has to be upgraded to a higher level, because the total mass of this multi-functional integration is higher than that of a single mission, and the requirements for rocket thrust and specific impulse are greater. Therefore, this is a prospect at this stage.

let’s go back to the main topic. If there is a manned landing on the moon in the future, the biggest possibility is to adopt this “old” structure. The mass of Apollo spacecraft is about 45 tons. Can we reduce it to less than 30 tons? It seems unlikely. After all, the proportion of structural quality is not high, and the material technology has not made rapid progress. Therefore, the decline of structural quality is limited, and the fuel is the most difficult to save. Therefore, even if the reduction is only a few tons, it may be the limit to 40 tons.

in terms of parameters, the orbit capacity of LTO in the new scheme is close to 50 tons, which is directly designed for lunar landing. However, the current status of Long March 9 is still under study. Of course, we can learn something about it from its launch plan.

its first launch is expected to be in a certain period of 2028. Of course, this is a smooth situation. For example, fat 5 failed for the first time, and many plans were delayed. This is a possibility that must be faced. However, there are no specific plans for the subsequent 2030 Mars exploration sampling return and Jupiter probe plan, so we can only speculate on this

referring to the implementation process of Apollo program

at that time, it was the time of the lunar landing competition, so it was crazy. The Americans went through all the test plans in three years, but China’s lunar landing was not for the purpose of competition, so the time would certainly slow down. For example, there would be at least one unmanned test, one low earth orbit test, and one manned test in circumlunar orbit If the cz-9 is delayed and the spaceship development and other comprehensive factors are included, it is believed that it will be more than 15 years, and it is more likely to be implemented before 2049, because it may present a gift to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China, but certainly not for this purpose. After all, this is the lunar landing plan and does not take it as a reference date. Trump posted that “children are immune to the new crown” was deleted from Facebook and twitter

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