CCTV economic voice “fund observation” focuses on “investment strategy in the third and fourth quarters” this week. Reporter Liu Siqiang interviewed Liang Xing, director of quantitative investment division of Cathay Pacific Fund, to discuss the selection direction of ETF in the industry.
Liu Siqiang: in recent years, market volatility has increased, and structural differentiation is very obvious. “Good targets are more and more expensive” has become the consensus of many fund managers. The valuation of some public offering actively managed equity products has exceeded 100 times or even 200 times. In this case, will fund managers “fear heights”? In this structural trend, will index funds show comparative advantages?
Liang Xing: is there a so-called fear of heights among active fund managers? I think it still exists in terms of data. We have noticed that at this stage, some fund managers will take the initiative to shift some of the targets with high and overvalued positions and continue to move upward, avoiding possible risks as far as possible. As for the index fund, relatively speaking, it is necessary to adhere to the investment in the selected direction. At this time, because of its own deterministic characteristics, it can better adhere to this kind of investment.
objectively speaking, there is no better way. If the fund managers abandon the current overvalued technology, medicine and consumption, and buy such undervalued stocks as steel and coal, some fund managers will not be able to do so. After all, the opportunities for performance realization are still more concentrated in the industries and sectors of science and technology, medicine and food and beverage. Therefore, they are indeed good targets, and they are not cheap, or test the operation level of fund managers.
Liu Siqiang: in the second quarter of this year, the top five industries with over allotment ratio of active partial equity funds were pharmaceutical biology, electronics, food and beverage, computer and electrical equipment, etc. if investors choose stocks or choose ETF funds along with the over matched industries of public fund managers, is it rational and safe?
Liang Xing: I think new investors can copy homework, but if you want to have better income or invest more rationally, you should slowly transition from “copying homework” to “writing homework”. This process requires investors to do some homework to study the basic situation of the selected industry. If we fight this “battle” with blindfolded eyes, we will surely lose everything. Because there is a delay in the disclosure of quarterly reports of public funds. For example, the position situation up to June 30 will not be seen until the third quarterly report is disclosed in late July. After one month of delay, some changes may have taken place in the market and some changes may also occur in the operation of fund managers. In such a case, blindly “copying homework” may not make money.
Liu Siqiang: so, what are the main directions we suggest investors follow in the third and fourth quarters? As the main force of ETF in the industry, which segments do we predict will come from?
Liang Xing: as for the direction of industry selection, we suggest that we should follow the national policies and guidelines, mainly focusing on the main line of science and technology. The main line of science and technology is to grasp three directions: the first is the construction of 5g communication network, which is related to the chip, communication, computer and other industries. Among them, we are the first to promote the investment opportunities of chip plate. At present, it is possible that 5g communication network construction is still in the early stage. As the upstream industry of 5g communication network construction, chip can have space to pull ahead or realize performance first. By the end of this year, the construction of 5g communication network is estimated to reach 500000-600000 base stations, and after the speed increase next year, it will be about 800000-1000000 base stations. So, by next year, 1.5-2 million base stations will be basically realized, and it is expected to meet the basic conditions for 5g mobile phone replacement. If the wave of 5g mobile phone replacement comes next year, the chip, as the upstream of the whole 5g communication industry chain, should have the performance realized and landed in advance. Therefore, we are the first to launch the chip. Of course, its fluctuation is relatively large. We should also pay attention to it.
the second direction of the main line of science and technology is new energy vehicles, which is also a science and technology main line that the state attaches great importance to. At present, the new energy vehicle industry chain is still on the left side from the fundamental point of view, and the performance has not been released. According to the new energy vehicle industry development plan, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for 25% by 2025, and this number will be less than 5% this year. Therefore, the imagination space of the new energy vehicle plate is actually relatively large. In recent months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles are also increasing. Although the valuation is relatively high and the volatility will be relatively large, compared with the chip board, its performance has not yet started to release, which should be a main line of investment in the second half of the year or even next year.
the third main line of science and technology is biomedicine. We have been recommending this one since the beginning of the year. Because the novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine has been fired up for the whole biopharmaceutical plate, the biomedical industry itself is a long-term investment opportunity, relying on the progress of life science and technology. The short-term valuation is also relatively high, so we suggest that you consider the layout when you encounter a more significant adjustment of the disk.
another comparison suggests that we should focus on the securities sector. On the one hand, the securities sector has a better fundamental support. For example, the stock and bond market in the past two years has had a relatively good performance in the industry’s self-employed income, and the stock and bond market has a relatively positive impact. At present, the sci-tech innovation board and the growth enterprise market are about to try out a 20% rise and fall in the brokerage income. In the future, the science and technology innovation board is expected to launch a single T + 0 transaction, which is conducive to the improvement of brokerage income and trading activity. If the registration system is implemented in the science and technology innovation board and the gem, investment banking income is expected to be significant In addition, the two financing business and asset management business of securities companies are in a relatively good state. Generally speaking, the favorable policies in all aspects will help to promote the development of the whole securities industry.
judging from the valuation level, the current valuation of the securities industry is still acceptable. Although it experienced a round of sharp rise at the end of June and the beginning of July, the current stock company index Pb is only about 2 times, about 2.1 and 2.2. The highest value of the last round of bull market securities valuation pb4.84, even after a wave of increase, the valuation level of the entire securities sector has not caught up with the previous round of bull market. Therefore, we are more optimistic about the stock market after the market, and we think the previous market has not finished.
risk tips: the above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions or commitments. If you need to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to the relevant provisions of investor suitability management, do risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with matching risk level according to your own risk tolerance. Funds are risky, so investment should be cautious. Investors should fully understand the difference between fixed investment and lump sum withdrawal. Fixed investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed investment can not avoid the inherent risk of fund investment, can not guarantee investors to obtain income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.
fund observation is a special investment column of the voice of economy of CCTV. Conduct in-depth interviews with professionals in the fund industry, focus on the capital market, analyze market hot spots, and help investors grasp investment opportunities. On Monday to Friday trading days, the voice of the economy was broadcast at 10:30.
Liang Xing, 13 years of fund experience, 4.16 years of investment experience. He once worked in Hua’an fund and joined Cathay Pacific Fund in 2011. He has successively served as product brand manager, researcher and fund manager assistant. He is now the director of quantitative investment division and fund manager of several funds.
Liu Siqiang is the editor and reporter of the special column of economic voice of China Central Radio and television; producer and financial commentator of fund observation.